Last time I posted this data, it was to shed some light on the improvements, because the media often chooses to sensationalize negative economic indicators, or simply put their focus there, and minimize positive indicators, claiming that there’s something else at work.
Some people believe that these numbers are completely manufactured and give them no credence. Economists responded that the GDP, stock conditions, etc. indicate a less than favorable economic recovery and doomsdayers are still waiting for that fiscal cliff.
For those, however, that believe, like I do, that hope is a better condition for positive change and momentum, these numbers will be quite the inspiration.
Yes, the summer is a time to enjoy – AND get ready! September is the second biggest hiring month of the year. Have the infrastructure of your transition in place by Labor Day and take full advantage of the boost in hiring!
News summary, from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (7/14)
The national unemployment rate lowered by .2% over the month to 6.1% with 9.5 million unemployed. The number of persons experiencing long spells of unemployment (over a year) lowered by 284,000 people to 2.1 million. 3.1 million individuals had been unemployed for 6 months or more in June, a decrease of 293,000 over the month, and a decrease of 1.2M over the past 12 months. That means about 29% of those who became unemployed 6 months ago are still unemployed today. They are, however, competing with 900,000 fewer job seekers than they were in December when the unemployment rate was 6.7% and 10.4 million were unemployed. Long-term unemployment has been steadily declining since 2011 when 6.4M were experiencing spells of over 6 months.
The average number of weeks that job seekers are staying unemployed has decreased over the month to 33.5, which is 2 weeks shorter than 3 months ago, while the median also decreased to 13.1 weeks, a huge decrease of almost 3 weeks in 2 months!
Such a difference between the mean and the average may reflect that for most industries and geographies, job seekers may be able to transition within 4 months. However, a greater majority are either not be able to effectively execute a transition campaign, or may be in adversely impacted geographies or shrinking markets, creating challenges to transitioning that lead to extremely long spells of unemployment.
91M are not currently in the labor force, for a variety of reasons. This is 965K fewer than last month. This number had been steadily increasing by about 1M year over year since 1947, with a few exceptions (1978, 1985, 1989.) 2003 had a marked increase of nearly 2M people, and then again in 2008 and every year since.
7M of these individuals not in the labor force do currently want a job and have reported searching during the past 4 weeks. We’re about where we were in 1994. It had steadily decreased until 2000, and has been increasing since then. May and June have been traditionally the highest months. Since 2011, this number had been above 7.1M during June. This is the first year that June’s numbers have been below 7M.
Another 2M are “marginally attached,” meaning they want a job and have searched for work during the prior 12 months, and were available to take a job during the reference week, but had not looked for work in the past 4 weeks.
1.4M did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for such reasons as school or family responsibilities, ill health, and transportation problems, as well as a number for whom reason for nonparticipation was not determined (not counted as unemployed for the purpose of this report).
676K are discouraged workers who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as thinks no work available, could not find work, lacks schooling or training, employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination. This number has not been this low since March 2009. It hit a high of 1.3M in December of 2010.
A special note about the world economy:
Job creation worldwide has not been significant enough to impact the worldwide unemployment numbers, which have stood at 200M unemployed for several years. Many other developed countries are not enjoying the recovery that we are:
Greece – 28.1%
Spain – 27.2%
South Africa – 25.2%
Portugal – 16.3%
Ireland – 13.4%
Italy – 12.6%
Under-developed and developing countries are making much larger strides in their domestic economic development, and the focus appears to be on continuing to promote growth and economic opportunity in these countries.
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2 responses to “Get ready! Economy’s going up!”
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